Morning Grains Comments 08/09/24 (2024)

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Friday, August 09, 2024

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand

The following table of analysts' estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Monday.

U.S. 2024 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)

Average Range USDA July USDA 2023

Corn Production 15,103 14,920-15,284 15,100 15,342

Soybean Production 4,469 4,396-4,537 4,435 4,165

Corn Yield 182.1 181.1-184.0 181.0 177.3

Soybean Yield 52.5 52.0-53.0 52.0 50.6

****

U.S. Stockpiles (millions)

2023-24

Average Range USDA July

Corn 1,882 1,825-1,977 1,877

Soybeans 347 332-360 345

Wheat 702 702-705 702

2024-25

Average Range USDA July

Corn 2,092 1,987-2,295 2,097

Soybeans 472 396-540 435

Wheat 860 830-876 856

****

World Stockpiles (million metric tons)

2023-24

Average Range USDA July

Corn 309.7 308.0-313.5 309.1

Soybeans 110.9 108.8-112.5 111.3

Wheat 261.0 260.0-262.0 261.0

2024-25

Average Range USDA July

Corn 311.2 307.0-315.0 311.6

Soybeans 127.6 125.6-130.5 127.8

Wheat 257.3 254.0-260.0 257.2

****

2024-25 WHEAT PRODUCTION

Average Range USDA July USDA 2023-24

All Wheat 2,016 1,982-2,035 2,008 1,812

Winter Wheat 1,348 1,329-1,396 1,342 1,248

Hard Red Winter 766 755-788 763 601

Soft Red Winter 345 340-349 344 449

White Winter 237 224-280 234 198

Other Spring 580 540-600 578 505

Durum 90 88-95 89 59

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets again yesterday on some new speculative and commercial selling. The weekly export sales report is out and as there has been some positive demand news amid production problems in Russia and Europe. US harvest progress and ideas of good yields and crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 520, 514, and 508 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 545, 540, and 534 September, with resistance at 590, 601, and 618 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 583, 574, and 5568 September, and resistance is at 628, 636, and 646 September.

RICE

General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday as the market seems to be consolidating recent gains before the USDA reports on Monday. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1478, 1452, and 1431 September and resistance is at 1538, 1544, and 1566 September

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday, with selling seen in Wheat and Soybeans and on ideas of good growing conditions in the Midwest and talk of very strong yield potential. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week but hot weather could return next week. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota have had way too much rain but the weather is better now. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas but demand remains solid overall.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 379, 376, and 373 September, and resistance is at 414, 426, and 446 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 317, 311, and 302 September, and resistance is at 336, 348, and 364 September

SOYBEAN

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower and Soybean Oil closed higher. Demand news was moderate for both Soybeans and Soybean Meal last week with big sales announced on the daily system. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the last week. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn cooler amid dry weather this week. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.

Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 212,000 tons of US Soybeans. Colombia bought 100,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1992, 980, and 968 September, and resistance is at 1018, 1033, and 1047 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 311.00 and 293.00 September. Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 313.00 September, and resistance is at 330.00, 336.00, and 339.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4130, 4030, and 3970 September, with resistance at 4260, 4350, and 4510 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday with ideas of expanding world oilseeds production and weakness in outside markets. It was higher again today. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies, but growing conditions overall are good.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 585.00, 572.00, and 560.00 November, with resistance at 605.00, 617.00, and 627.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3680, 3620, and 3560 October, with resistance at 3770, 3830, and 3880 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Corn  HRW   SRW   Soybeans    Soybean Meal      Soybean Oil

July                                61 July     137 Sep

49 Sep

95 Aug

August                                    76 Sep      137 Sep     49 Sep      95 Nov

Sep                                 82 Sep      145 Sep     48 Sep      90 Nov            

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - Aug 9

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Aug 920.00 +10.00 Unquoted - -

Sep 902.50 +12.50 Unquoted - -

Oct/Nov/Dec 885.00 +17.50 Unquoted - -

Jan/Feb/Mar 887.50 +20.00 Unquoted - -

Apr/May/Jun 885.00 +20.00 Unquoted - -

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Aug 922.50 +10.00 Unquoted - -

Sep 905.00 +12.50 Unquoted - -

Oct/Nov/Dec 887.50 +17.50 Unquoted - -

Jan/Feb/Mar 890.00 +20.00 Unquoted - -

Apr/May/Jun 887.50 +20.00 Unquoted - -

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Aug 932.50 +10.00 Unquoted - -

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Aug 842.50 +10.00 Unquoted - -

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Aug 3,900.00 +40.00 Unquoted - -

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Aug 325.00 +11.00 Unquoted - -

($1=MYR4.42)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Aug 09

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 123,078 lots, or 5.59 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-24 4,584 4,598 4,553 4,575 4,584 4,578 -6 87,879 73,742

Nov-24 4,475 4,513 4,475 4,497 4,471 4,491 20 5,824 21,294

Jan-25 4,420 4,448 4,412 4,436 4,408 4,432 24 28,348 61,335

Mar-25 4,394 4,415 4,385 4,406 4,379 4,403 24 605 5,293

May-25 4,430 4,454 4,420 4,440 4,421 4,437 16 356 3,284

Jul-25 4,401 4,431 4,401 4,417 4,398 4,426 28 66 267

Corn

Turnover: 784,801 lots, or 18.07 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-24 2,300 2,320 2,296 2,319 2,284 2,307 23 471,570 465,399

Nov-24 2,305 2,309 2,286 2,304 2,287 2,300 13 166,089 444,624

Jan-25 2,289 2,293 2,271 2,282 2,273 2,279 6 109,289 404,572

Mar-25 2,285 2,291 2,270 2,276 2,273 2,277 4 17,507 95,167

May-25 2,325 2,329 2,306 2,313 2,315 2,317 2 9,649 18,379

Jul-25 2,330 2,336 2,313 2,320 2,320 2,322 2 10,697 10,132

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,684,776 lots, or 50.46 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Aug-24 2,973 2,973 2,968 2,968 2,953 2,969 16 65 20,041

Sep-24 2,992 3,002 2,952 2,991 2,990 2,978 -12 825,611 844,205

Nov-24 3,044 3,045 2,998 3,035 3,035 3,023 -12 108,390 487,615

Dec-24 3,078 3,082 3,039 3,066 3,075 3,057 -18 8,952 81,599

Jan-25 3,072 3,076 3,032 3,058 3,068 3,051 -17 539,516 1,133,198

Mar-25 2,979 2,984 2,950 2,973 2,971 2,968 -3 12,779 95,856

May-25 2,900 2,903 2,872 2,894 2,895 2,888 -7 167,919 801,435

Jul-25 2,911 2,916 2,887 2,907 2,905 2,903 -2 21,544 72,174

Palm Oil

Turnover: 921,031 lots, or 70.25 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Aug-24 - - - 7,784 7,784 7,784 0 0 1,032

Sep-24 7,608 7,744 7,600 7,728 7,618 7,690 72 552,621 189,745

Oct-24 7,542 7,666 7,536 7,648 7,560 7,610 50 10,910 8,117

Nov-24 7,524 7,646 7,510 7,630 7,546 7,590 44 2,989 3,774

Dec-24 7,512 7,614 7,506 7,604 7,524 7,554 30 253 387

Jan-25 7,454 7,592 7,452 7,578 7,480 7,534 54 335,377 342,753

Feb-25 7,438 7,560 7,438 7,526 7,456 7,496 40 69 381

Mar-25 7,424 7,536 7,424 7,522 7,440 7,478 38 161 3,243

Apr-25 7,410 7,492 7,394 7,480 7,406 7,456 50 15 258

May-25 7,342 7,462 7,342 7,442 7,358 7,422 64 18,601 59,848

Jun-25 7,360 7,412 7,360 7,412 7,326 7,384 58 12 81

Jul-25 7,338 7,384 7,338 7,364 7,304 7,364 60 23 37

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 559,186 lots, or 41.99 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Aug-24 - - - 7,260 7,260 7,260 0 0 3,251

Sep-24 7,458 7,534 7,458 7,504 7,480 7,502 22 285,575 324,618

Nov-24 7,474 7,524 7,466 7,500 7,484 7,502 18 7,349 25,627

Dec-24 7,536 7,588 7,532 7,566 7,550 7,564 14 387 2,378

Jan-25 7,520 7,566 7,496 7,546 7,520 7,536 16 240,214 451,581

Mar-25 7,398 7,476 7,394 7,454 7,404 7,436 32 313 3,537

May-25 7,298 7,356 7,288 7,328 7,302 7,326 24 25,222 121,951

Jul-25 7,294 7,352 7,288 7,324 7,298 7,310 12 126 316

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.