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CORN
Prices were $.02-$.03 lower in choppy 2 sided trade. Both Sept-24 and Dec-24 carved out new contract lows before bouncing. Also new low for the Sept/Dec spread trading out to $.18 ½ bu. Very little change noted for global weather. Dryer and cooler than normal conditions are forecast for the vast majority of the US midsection for the next 7 days keeping US yield prospects high. The BAGE held their Argentine production forecast unchanged at 46.5 mmt vs. the USDA at 52 mmt in July. Harvest has reached 96% complete. Expectations on Monday are for the USDA to trim both their Argentine and Brazilian production estimates. As of Aug. 9th Ukraine’s 2024/25 grain exports have reached 4.7 mmt, vs. only 2.8 mmt YA. Of the 4.7 mmt shipped, 1.9 mmt has been corn. Prior to this year December corn prices have been down in the month of July 7 of the last 10 years. In 6 of those 7 years prices were down again in the month of August. Dec-24 corn was down 5% in July closing the month at $3.99 ¾. Heavy old crop inventories still held by US farmers probably offset the huge speculative short position.
SOYBEANS
Prices managed to close higher for the day in all 3 classes however well off session highs. Chicago and MGEX were up $.03-$.05 while KC was up $.01-$.02. Scattered rains over the weekend in the Southern plains will provide some relief from the expanding drought pattern. The Black Sea region is forecast to remain in a dryer than normal pattern with temperatures trending higher. Spring wheat areas of Russia remain in an above normal rainfall pattern. France’s Ag. Ministry lowered their wheat production forecast 3.35 mmt to 26.3 mmt and is down 25% from YA. This represents their smallest crop in nearly 40 years. Their harvest has reached 88%. Ukraine wheat harvest is 97% complete having so far gathered nearly 21 mmt of grain, above the USDA production forecast of 19.5 mmt. IKAR raised their Russian grain production forecast 1.5 mmt to 129.5 mmt, vs. the Russian Ag. Ministry est. of 132 mmt. IKAR’s revised wheat production est. at 83.8 mmt was up .6 mmt and compares to the USDA forecast of 83 mmt. While IKAR raised their production forecast, SovEcon lowered their est. 1.8 mmt to 82.9 mmt. Algeria is believed to have purchased between 600 – 700k mt of wheat in their recent tender. Prices are expected to range from $250.50-$252/mt CF for October shipment. Final sales results expected later today. Egypt’s massive 3.8 mmt tender closes on Monday. Ukraine has shipped 2.2 mmt of wheat since the beginning of July.
WHEAT
Prices managed to close higher for the day in all 3 classes however well off session highs. Chicago and MGEX were up $.03-$.05 while KC was up $.01-$.02. Scattered rains over the weekend in the Southern plains will provide some relief from the expanding drought pattern. The Black Sea region is forecast to remain in a dryer than normal pattern with temperatures trending higher. Spring wheat areas of Russia remain in an above normal rainfall pattern. France’s Ag. Ministry lowered their wheat production forecast 3.35 mmt to 26.3 mmt and is down 25% from YA. This represents their smallest crop in nearly 40 years. Their harvest has reached 88%. Ukraine wheat harvest is 97% complete having so far gathered nearly 21 mmt of grain, above the USDA production forecast of 19.5 mmt. IKAR raised their Russian grain production forecast 1.5 mmt to 129.5 mmt, vs. the Russian Ag. Ministry est. of 132 mmt. IKAR’s revised wheat production est. at 83.8 mmt was up .6 mmt and compares to the USDA forecast of 83 mmt. While IKAR raised their production forecast, SovEcon lowered their est. 1.8 mmt to 82.9 mmt. Algeria is believed to have purchased between 600 – 700k mt of wheat in their recent tender. Prices are expected to range from $250.50-$252/mt CF for October shipment. Final sales results expected later today. Egypt’s massive 3.8 mmt tender closes on Monday. Ukraine has shipped 2.2 mmt of wheat since the beginning of July.
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